5 Aug 2020: The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC) approves the $6.8 billion ML-1 railway project under CPEC. Pakistan’s existing 2,655 km railway tracks will be upgraded to allow trains to move up to 165km per hour - twice as fast as they currently do - while the line capacity will increase from 34 to over 150 trains each way per day.

Groundbreaking will happen in February 2021, and the project will complete by 2030.

5 Nov 2019: Pakistan and China set a new ↓ direction of CPEC by largely shifting away from infrastructure projects, except the $9 billion Main Line-1 (ML1) project. Other decisions to expand the CPEC scope to copper, gold, and oil and gas sectors were taken during the 9th Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) meeting in Islamabad.

28 April 2019: List of Agreements signed during PM IK's visit to Beijing for BRF 2019, according to Chinese Embassy in Islamabad

1. CPFTA-II (China Pakistan Free Trade Agreement Phase II)

3. Declaration of Completion of Preliminary Design Phase-I on Upgradation of ML1

4. China-Pakistan Economic & Technological Cooperation Agreement

5. MOU on CPEC Social Economic Cooperation

10 September 2018: PM Imran Khan establishes a nine-member committee to evaluate CPEC projects. It is scheduled to meet for the first time this week and will “think through CPEC – all of the benefits and the liabilities”, says Abdul Razak Dawood, who sits on the new committee, and is advisor to PM on commerce, textiles, industry and investment.

“I think we should put everything on hold for a year so we can get our act together,” he added. “Perhaps we can stretch CPEC out over another five years or so.”

Several other officials and advisers concur that extending the terms of CPEC loans and spreading projects out over a longer timeframe is the preferred option, rather than outright cancellation. – says a news report in Financial Times, London.

13 July 2018: Pakistan and China inaugurate the optic fibre cable that has been laid to provide direct link between Pakistan, the Middle Asia and East Asia. Caretaker PM Nasirul Mulk, Chinese Ambassador Yao Jing were present at the inauguration ceremony in Islamabad.

The cable connects Rawalpindi with Khunjerab on the Pakistan-China border at an altitude of 4,700 meters, the highest fibre cable project in the world. Later, the cable will be extended to Gwadar, which will fully connect Pakistan and China.

Total cost was estimated at $44 million and Exim Bank of China provided 85% of loan at a concessionary rate. Construction work on the project started in March 2016 and ended in June 2018. The cable covers an area of 820km. There are 26 microwave transmission nodes from Rawalpindi to Karimabad and 171 km of aerial fibre cable from Karimabad to Khunjerab as a back-up. – Express Tribune.

7 March 2018: A first commercial shipment carrying containers of seafood from Gwadar leaves for Dubai’s Jebel Ali port. With this, China’s state-owned shipping and logistics services supplier, China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO), starts a weekly container shipping service from Gwadar Port every Wednesday.

18 Dec: The CPEC Long Term Plan (LTP) approved by both Chinese and Pakistani governments has been unveiled in Islamabad. According to Chinese Embassy tweets:

By 2020, the CPEC will take the initial shape, major bottlenecks to Pakistan’s economic and social development will be addressed, and the CPEC will start to boost the economic growth along it for both countries.

By 2025, the CPEC building phase done, the industrial system nearly complete, major economic functions brought into play in a holistic way, the people’s livelihood along the CPEC significantly improved and regional economic development more balanced.

By 2030, the CPEC building phase to be entirely accomplished, endogenous mechanism for sustainable economic growth in place, CPEC’s role in stimulating economic growth in Central and South Asia brought into holistic play, and South Asia to grow into international economic zone with global influence.

The LTP has an ambitious goal and an arduous task. As long as governments and people of two countries treat each other with all sincerity and cooperate sincerely, they will build CPEC into an open, inclusive one with economic prosperity, social stability and security, and wellbeing of people.

The LTP will provide macro guidance for implementation of CPEC in next phase. The plan will be adjusted based on real situation as well as the consensus between two parties during its implementation in future. New routes/ nodes/ aspects may be considered in future by mutual agreement.

21 Nov: The 7th Joint Coordination Committee (JCC) meeting on CPEC is being held today in Islamabad.

8 Nov: The 7th Joint Coordination Committee (JCC) meeting on CPEC will be held on 21 Nov in Islamabad. It will approve nine Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to be constructed along CPEC. The planned nine SEZs with special incentive packages for foreign investors will be operational by 2025. 

Financing agreements on three road projects – remaining portion of Karakoram Highway (KKH), D.I. Khan to Zhob and Khuzdar to Basima will be signed at the meeting. It is likely that CPEC long term plan will also be approved at JCC. In addition, Karachi Circular Railway (KCR) project may also be placed for final approval.

7 Nov: President Mamnoon Hussain inaugurates Bank of China’s operations in Pakistan, says China has emerged as a major investor and partner for Islamabad. Bank of China Chairman Chen Siqing says the Karachi branch is its first in South Asia.

18 Oct: A delegation of Chinese experts and investors was in Pakistan during 11-18 October to explore new trade avenues and investment opportunities in 9 SEZs. They held workshops and meeting in Karachi, Lahore, Faisalabad and Islamabad organised by the Board of Investment (BoI). They also visited SEZs in Punjab, Sindh, Rawalpindi, Gilgit-Baltistan and Gwadar Port Industrial Zone in Balochistan.

8 Sept: PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi forms an 11-member Cabinet Committee on CPEC, overhauling the existing institutional arrangement and bypassing the planning ministry. The CPEC committee members are finance minister, interior minister, foreign minister, railways minister, ports and shipping minister, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Economic Affairs Dr Miftah Ismail, Secretary to the Prime Minister Fawad Hassan Fawad, the Federal Board of Revenue chairman, and the Secretaries of Planning and Cabinet divisions.

13 July: 46 Special Economic Zones (SEZs) will be established along side the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) route in the long run, Board of Investment (BoI) chairman Dr Miftah Ismail tells Pakistan-China Industrial Cooperation Dialogue. Nine zones (see below) have already been declared prioritised during the 6th JCC meeting held in December 2016.

12 July: Speaking at a two-day CPEC Logistics International Forum (CLIF) in Islamabad organised by army’s NLC (National Logistics Cell), Pakistan’s army chief General Qamar Bajwa says CPEC will be a game changer. Assuring the project’s continuity and security, he says the army will fully guard the CPEC plan.

11 July: Li Xuedoung, DG, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China, says the plan to upgrade ML-1, the main railway track joining Peshawar with Karachi, is a key priority of the working agenda under CPEC. Li meets Khawja Saad Rafique, Minister for Railways at his office.

The ML-1 upgradation project will be completed in five years at the cost of $8 billion. China will provide $5.5 billion while $2.5 billion will come from Asian Development Bank (ADB).

3 July: The 1320MW Sahiwal Coal-Fired Power Plant (Units 1 & 2) – CPEC’s one of early-harvest projects – is completed ahead of time in 22 months and goes into operation. Punjab CM Shehbaz Sharif and a Chinese minister inaugurate it, with Chinese ambassador in attendance.

28 May: First round of China-Afghanistan-Pakistan practical cooperation dialogue is held in Beijing. The dialogue is co-chaired by Mansoor Ahmed Khan, Xiao Qian and Khalid Payenda. Three sides appreciate CPEC and its benefits for promoting regional connectivity.

28 May: MoU is signed with China for upgradation of Peshawar to Karachi Railway line called ML-1 as the federal government allocates over Rs 42 billion in new budget to reinvigorate railways network.

25 May: The 660MW Sahiwal Coal-Fired Power Plant (Unit 1) – one of CPEC’s early harvest projects – becomes operational today. PM Sharif inaugurates it. Punjab CM Shehbaz Sharif is a force behind its earlier-than-scheduled completion.

12 May: PM Sharif and the four chief ministers arrive in Beijing to attend Belt and Road Forum on 14-15 May where they are likely to sign various MoUs.

11 May: Pakistan’s Executive Committee of National Economic Council (ECNEC) approves Gwadar East Bay Expressway

Addressing a public gathering in Gwadar, PM Sharif says 1,100km roads are being constructed in Balochistan

Federal Minister SAFRON Gen Abdul Qadir Baloch says more than 60 countries are willing to invest in Gwadar

PM announces to build a university and a 300-beds hospital in Gwadar

14 March: Construction work on Karachi Circular Railway (KCR) project will start soon: PM Sharif speaking in Karachi

7 March: A team of Chinese engineers is in Quetta to start work on the Quetta Mass Transit Train (QMTT) Project. After a feasibility report, the Chinese firm has sought an NOC from the government to start work on 48km QMTT from Spezant to Kuchlak. In the current budget, the Balochistan government has allocated Rs 1 billion for QMTT feasibility. In December, the project was included in CPEC at 6th JCC in Beijing. The QMTT funds will come from CPEC kitty.

6 March: The federal government plans to build a CPEC Tower in Islamabad. As a sign of Pak-China friendship, the tallest building in the capital will serve as a symbol of socioeconomic progress Pakistan is making across all fronts and will attract investors.

5 Feb: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is now worth $57 billion, according to Reuters news agency. Other agencies term the current projects valued at $51 billion.

3 Feb: PM Sharif inaugurates the completed first 75km-section of the 136km six-lane Karachi-Hyderabad (M-9) Motorway. The sections 2 and 3 will be completed by March and July respectively by FWO.

As part of Peshawar-Lahore-Karachi motorway route, M-9 will connect Karachi with the rest of the country and also facilitate the CPEC traffic. According to one guesstimate, once completed, CPEC-related toll tax collection may amount to a couple of billion dollars a year.

January:  9 CPEC Special Economic Zones (SEZs)

Under next development phase, nine CPEC Special Economic Zones (SEZs) are being set up in the country, as agreed in the 6th JCC in Beijing on 29 Dec last year.

Of these, two industrial zones are being set up by the federal government in Islamabad and Karachi. The rest of seven are established each in Punjab, Sindh, KP, Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, Fata and Azad Kashmir. Here are details:

Federal 1: ICT Model Industrial Zone, Islamabad

Federal 2: Development of Industrial Park on Pakistan Steel Mills Land at Port Qasim near Karachi

Punjab: Punjab-China Economic Zone, M-2 Sheikhupura district

27 Jan: In a major development, which is a milestone in its execution, Sahiwal Power Plant has been connected with the national grid (500KVA Line). It is six months ahead of schedule. First coal-laden 1,500-tonnes freight train arrives at Sahiwal coal power plant from Port Qasim Karachi on 1 Feb. Punjab CM Shehbaz Sharif receives.

3 Jan: Milestone: Another big Chinese ship visits Gwadar Port. After three years of maintenance and renovation, the port is restored to its designed capacity. Gwadar Free Zone is now under construction: Lijian Zhao, DCM, Chinese Embassy

30 Dec: Under CPEC’s next development phase, nine industrial zones will be set up in the country, the 6th JCC in Beijing agreed. Of these, two industrial zones will be set up by the federal government in Islamabad and Karachi, while the rest of seven will be established each in Punjab, Sindh, KP, Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, Fata and Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK).

29 Dec: The sixth meeting of the Joint Coordination Committee (JCC) in Beijing approves inclusion of these projects in CPEC framework: Karachi Circular Railways, Keti Bunder sea port development project and Diamer-Basha Dam.

It also agrees on Mass Transit Railways projects in each of the provincial headquarters to facilitate millions of people besides setting up SEZs.

New road projects on the western route were also approved. These include 136km Thakot-Raikot (remaining portion of N-35) in addition to 118km KKH Phase II (Thakot-Havelian section); and upgradation of 210km D.I.Khan-Zhob (N-50 Phase-I).

In Balochistan, 210km dual carriageway from Yarik to Zhob and 110km Khuzdar-Basima N-30 road will be built.

Chitral CPEC link road from Gilgit, Shandor, Chitral to Chakdara

Mirpur-Muzaffarabad-Mansehra road construction for connectivity with CPEC route

Naukundi-Mashkhel-Panjgur road project connecting with M-8 & N-85

Quetta water supply scheme from Pat feeder canal, Balochistan

Iron ore mining, processing & steel mills complex at Chiniot, Punjab

During 2013-2016, the JCC on CPEC held six meetings:

19 Dec: A gate-free and signal-free 1,872km railway track from Karachi to Peshawar (ML-1) costing $8.2 billion will be constructed: Railways Minister

14 Dec: In Turbat, PM Sharif inaugurate 448km N-85 Sorab-Hoshab road on the Western route of CPEC. The road, upgraded by FWO at a cost of Rs 22 billion, will link Gwadar Port with N-25 National Highway near Sorab/Quetta.

14 Dec: A Chinese cargo ship is arriving at Gwadar on 15 December. The cargo is for business centre in Gwadar Free Zone (GFZ).

13 Dec: Pakistan Navy assembles a Task Force-88 (TF-88) for the seaward security of Gwadar port, organises a maritime conference on CPEC attended by all service chiefs and CJCSC. Snippets by Andrew Small:

Chinese ambassador, speaking in Gwadar: CPEC has already created 10,000 jobs in Pakistan, including 400 in Gwadar.

DG, GDA: The whole of the Gwadar Master Plan Area will be declared as a Special Economic Zone on the Shenzhen model, not just the Free Zone.

Iranian official: Discussions on a rail-link between Chabahar and Gwadar are ongoing; we have already agreed they will be sister ports

Chairman, China Overseas Ports Holding Company (COPHC): Gwadar will be the largest shipping centre in South Asia by 2022.

1 Dec: China and Pakistan launch direct rail and sea freight service between Kunming and Karachi cutting transport cost by over 50 percent.

PM Sharif meets Turkmenistan President. Says many countries want to be part of CPEC following Iran and Turkmenistan and half of world’s population to benefit from CPEC project. South and Central Asia to be connected through road and rail.

PM Sharif offers Turkish investors to invest in CPEC

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan while on a two-day visit to Pakistan: Turkey believes CPEC will become a source of international peace and stability

Earlier, Turkish Ambassador to Pakistan attends CPEC ceremony at Gwadar Port where Turkey confirms participation in the CPEC project

An authentic and documented timeline of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) from 2013-2020 by IMC

CPEC fact sheet: 2013-2020 by IMC & Wali Zahid

May 2020: A GDP chart that explains what happened to Pakistan

Pakistan GDP to fall to -2.6% in 2020 and to -0.2% in 2021: World Bank

June 2020: In its revised June 2020 Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank has forecasted Pakistan GDP to fall to -2.6% in 2020 and to -0.2% in 2021. Above photo

19 May 2020: For the first time in 68 years, Pakistan’s economy has marginally contracted by 0.38% in the outgoing fiscal year. The National Accounts Committee also approved the provisional GDP growth rate for the first year of the PTI government from 3.3% to 1.9% for fiscal 2018-19, which is the lowest in 11 years. See chart, above

The economic contraction coupled with currency devaluation has caused the size of the economy – in the US dollar terms – to slip to around $265.6 billion from $280 billion a year ago. At the end of the PML-N government’s term, the size of the GDP in dollar terms was $313 billion. – Tribune

In its revised WEO, IMF has forecasted Pakistan GDP growth to be Negative 1.5. Source: Statista

Pakistan GDP to slip to 2.1% in 2020-21: UN

18 January 2020: In its World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2020 report, the UN forecasts Pakistan’s GDP growth to slip to 2.1% this year (fiscal 2020-21). Indian economy is expected to rise to 6.6% and Bangladesh to grow by 7.8%, says WESP.

26 September: ADB sees Pakistan GDP growth falling to 2.8% in FY2020. ADB Outlook 2019

18 August 2019: What can happen in a year: From one of the fastest-growing economies (2018 GDP 5.8%) to nearly slowest in South Asia in 2019, this is Pakistan. Forecast by ADB

7 April 2019: Pakistan’s GDP growth is projected to slow down to 3.4% in fiscal year 2018-19, from 5.8% a year before, and to 2.7% in FY2019-20, reflecting a broad-based weakening in domestic demand as monetary and fiscal policies have been tightened to contain macroeconomic imbalances, the World Bank said in a report.

In its latest edition of the South Asia Economic Focus, Exports Wanted, the World Bank cited macroeconomic imbalances, reflected in large fiscal and current account deficits, as the reason behind the projected slowdown in Pakistan’s GDP growth. – News

10 October 2018: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees Pakistan GDP growth to fall at 4% during the current fiscal year as it says the economy is losing grip on the gains made during the previous years.

“Growth in Pakistan is expected to strengthen from 5.4% in 2017 to 5.8% in 2018… underpinned by improved energy supply, investment related to CPEC, and strong credit growth,” the IMF said in the ‘World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2018: Challenges to steady growth’ report.

“However, macroeconomic stability gains have been eroding, putting the outlook at risk. Growth is expected to moderate to 4.% in 2019, and slow to about 3% in the medium term – till 2023.” – The News

It was only this week that we had reported Pakistan’s long-term positive outlook (link above), provided by HSBC in its 2030 report. The forecast provided by IMF today will impact our 2030/2050 forecasts by HSBC, PwC, and Goldman Sachs negatively.

Newly updated IMF GDP growth forecast for Pakistan:

In April 2018 WEO, before the current PTI government took office, the projections we reported were:

Earlier this week, the World Bank revised down growth forecast for Pakistan to 4.8% for the current fiscal year as it says the macroeconomic stabilisation is to take toll on the economy.

Graphs tell the sorry tale of how Pakistan economy took a nosedive within months of PTI takeover

In two years, Pakistan economy nosedives

Written originally for China Pictorial, Beijing

Back in 2013, I was conducting a training module on Aviation Leadership for a newly-recruited, smart cohort of officers of Pakistan’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) at their residential campus in southern city of Hyderabad. Giving them a case of China’s Comac assigned to manufacture Chinese passenger planes in 10 years that beat 100-year-old Boeing and Airbus at their game, I asked if this capability was achievable in five-to-10 years. Most of them shook their heads, saying it was impossible. Someone said only if a miracle happens. And I said the miracle will happen. Indeed, the miracle happened. In May 2017, Comac-made C919 made its first test flight.

This is the story of China’s 40-year reform and opening up. Pick any area – from technology to education to culture – China has surprised the world.

In two areas – poverty reduction and economic development – China’s miracles are remarkable and unparalleled.

Taking 700 million out of poverty in four decades was unthinkable in the eyes of global economists and China defied their belief. Back in 1978, over 97 percent population was under extreme poverty; in 2018, only 3 percent (30 million) was accounted for as poor. This is nearly 20 million people each year coming out of poverty.

Let me concentrate for a few moments on China’s economic-development miracle.

In 1978, when the reform and opening up began with Deng Xiaoping speech and setting up of four SEZs, China’s share in the world economy was merely 1.75 percent, at $150 billion. In 2018, it rose to 15 percent of the world economy, making China the world’s second largest economy.

In the 40 years since reform, China beat all other countries by achieving the maximum growth in a 40-year period to the tune of 3,500 percent. This is unprecedented.

Since 2014 when China first overtook the US economy by GDP purchasing power parity (PPP), China has been leaving the US economy behind by nearly a trillion dollar every year.

With $23.2 trillion in size by PPP in 2018, China is now $4 trillion ahead of the US, currently at $19.4 trillion, according to World Data Atlas which monitors the global economies through a variety of indicators.

The US had been the world’s largest economy for over 140 years. In 1872, the US had deprived Britain, then the world’s largest economy, of this title. In 2014, China did the same for the US.

In terms of GDP Nominal, the US is still the largest economy in the world, with 2018 GDP at $19.4 trillion, compared with China’s $12.2 trillion.

In 1980, the US GDP PPP was $2.9 trillion, nearly 10 times more than China while China was at merely $306 billion that year.

Per capita income in China has increased 50-­fold from $156 in 1978 to nearly $9,000 in 2018.

In 2018, China’s foreign trade volume exceeded $4 trillion, 200 times the size in 1978.

Since 2006, China has held the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves, which in 2018 stood at $3.15 trillion. In 1978, China’s foreign exchange reserves were at measly $170 million.

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Other recent indicators of China’s economic rise

According to the 2018 Forbes ranking of world’s biggest public companies, five of world’s 10 biggest public companies are Chinese. Their ranking with market capitalisation:

5 Agricultural Bank of China $184 billion

10 Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China $181 billion

Tech firms like Alibaba and TenCent are also among the largest conglomerates in the world.

Similarly, in 2016, four of the world’s 10 largest employers were Chinese organisations. Their ranking and number of employees:

6 China National Petroleum Corporation 1.6 million

7 State Grid Corporation of China 1.5 million

Another measure: Half of world’s top 20 container ports in 2018 were in China, according to Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) projections. Shanghai is world’s biggest container port, with 38.5 million TEUs.

Chinese tourists are already the world’s largest group of out-bound tourists. In 2016, they spent over $261 billion, 21 percent of the world market, according to United Nations World Tourism Organization.

How economic rise results in global influence

China’s economic rise has brought laurels to Chinese political leadership and President Xi Jinping is in the global spotlight. It also brought yuan into SDR basket of IMF currencies as the fifth global currency.

In 2018 annual ranking of The World’s Most Powerful People by American magazine, Forbes, President Xi Jinping seized the top spot.

This is for the first time ever that Xi clinched this spot, as Chinese CPC Congress removed term limits broadening his influence. Xi enjoys a cult of personality not seen since Chairman Mao, says Forbes.

Xi’s elevation to the world’s most powerful person unseated Russian President Vladimir Putin (#2), who held the top spot for an unprecedented four consecutive years. Putin has ruled Russia since May of 2000.

With the unprecedented economic development China could challenge the global financial system led by World Bank and IMF with influence from the USA. China-led AIIB and BRICS Development Bank are examples of initiatives that signaled to the world that China was not willing to stay as a bystander and it needed its centre-stage presence, not accorded to China thus far.

The 2013 Belt and Road Initiative connecting 68 countries in Asia, Africa and Europe and with connectivity and infrastructure projects worth over $1 trillion is a landmark initiative, many comparing it with Marshall Plan, the postwar reconstruction plan by US.

What other countries can learn from China?

The other countries in the world can learn a great deal from the China miracle. Countries like India and Pakistan, with very large populations below poverty line, can learn lessons from China’s anti-poverty mechanism and feed its people.

By using China speed of rapid growth, they can learn how to increase productivity and efficiency and create job opportunities for their massive semi-skilled and semi-literate workforce.

They can learn from China’s commitment to improve the business climate for small and medium enterprises, which could be backbone of economic growth.

Creating an export-led economy through special economic zones on the lines of Shenzhen and with initiates like ‘Made in China 2025’, they can pay off their global debt, create foreign exchange reserves and improve trade balance with other countries.

By creating sustainable GDP growth, these countries can become a market of choice for foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Since its opening up in 1978, China received $2 trillion worth of FDI amounts.

China’s strides in agriculture are worthy of replication in regional countries in Africa and Asia. The agricultural yield can increase and loss and waste can be reduced. China has shown the world that self-sufficient rural agriculture can be done and is sustainable.

Above all, these countries can learn that economic development is not a sprint, it’s a marathon. Only long-term sustainable economic policies with midcourse correction can yield results what China is reaping these years.

In November 2018, China is holding its first international import fair in Shanghai. With a new spotlight on imports, it is an indicator to the rest of the world that they can make goods and services for China’s rising middle class and the rich, who will have plenty of money to spend. In next five years, China is aiming to import $10 trillion worth of products and services.

With nearly $60 trillion in size, China will continue to be the world’s largest economy by GDP PPP in 2050, according to PwC, the world’s largest accounting firm.

With current GDP Nominal at $12 trillion in 2018, China is set to become the world’s largest economy by GDP within next decade.

According to a study by Citigroup Inc, ranking 32 in Fortune 500, China’s nominal GDP will reach $28 trillion by 2025 compared with $26 trillion for the US. This is based on anticipated growth rates and a gradual appreciation of the yuan to 5 per dollar from 6.8 now, says Citi.

According to Goldman Sachs, the world’s largest investment bank, China’s GDP will be at $53 trillion in 2050, nearly double the size of the US.

In years to come, 2018 could be viewed as a tipping point for global asset allocation, says a Bloomberg report. It says investors could send $3.36 trillion of new capital into China from abroad by 2025.

With China’s manifest desire to work with the other countries as partners and stakeholders, every country is going to benefit from China’s economic rise. This win-win is what the world needs.

Also published in The News, Pakistan on 1 December 2018. Later, it was carried by CPEC Official.

Wali Zahid is a longtime China watcher and a Pakistan futurist. An award-winning journalist and formerly Editor of The News, Lahore, Pakistan’s largest-selling daily, he writes on issues of significance to Pakistan, CPEC & BRI and occasionally contributes to People’s Daily China, China Pictorial, Global Times. As President of Institute of Media and Communications (IMC), Wali was a high-level delegate at Belt & Road Forum in Beijing in May 2017. Twitter: @walizahid

How China surprises the world through an economic miracle

How 40-year reform has paid off China in economic development

Pakistan is among the world’s largest economies by Gross Domestic Product, GDP numbers from the World Bank, released on 21 September 2018, reveal. The above visualisation of world economy is done by HowMuch.

IMF ranks Pakistan as world’s 40th largest economy by GDP.

In 2018, with a population of 208 million, Pakistan’s GDP stands at $305 billion (or, $0.3 trillion), image below.

Globally, Pakistan makes up 0.38% of the world GDP. At $19.39 trillion, USA is Number 1, and at $12.24 trillion, China is Number 2 in the world.

By GDP purchasing-power-parity (PPP), Pakistan is a trillion-dollar economy and ranks as 25th largest economy in the world.

2. China – $12.24 trillion (check our story)

Finally, Pakistan makes it to top 40 in the world

Pakistan now among top 40 global economies

Pakistan is the world’s fourth fastest growing economy after Bangladesh, Ethiopia and India, according to the 2018 global research report by HSBC.

Titled ‘The World in 2030‘, and released on 25 September 2018, it gives HSBC’s long-term projections for 75 countries.

See also: Harvard predicts Pakistan GDP to grow by 6% over 10 years

According to HSBC, China looks set to be the world’s largest economy by 2030 while India would jump to No. 3 after USA, pushing Germany and Japan down.

Pakistan’s GDP growth projections to 2030 will average 5.7%, the highest being 6.5% in 2028-2033 five-year period.

VIDEO: Wali’s TEDx talk on With data, the future is different

Currently, Pakistan is world’s 40th largest economy with a size of $0.3 trillion ($300 billion).

By 2030, Pakistan will become world’s 30th largest economy with a size of $0.6 trillion ($600 billion), gaining a 10-point increase in global ranking. The other high-ranking countries are Bangladesh (16 points up) and Philippines (11 points up).

As a cause for optimism, this writer/blog has been forecasting Pakistan’s economic future (this, this, and this) for over a decade, which Pakistan’s mainstream media – both electronic and print – conveniently ignore, thus creating pessimism among thousands of graduating classes about country’s future.

Pakistan is world’s 4th fastest growing economy: HSBC

In a 2018 McKinsey report, Pakistan tops gender inequality ranking in Asia Pacific in 2018. Image above.

In work inequality (labour force participation, professional and technical jobs, perceived pay gap, ) sub ranking, it falls into extremeinequality category. The same is the case with legal and political inequality ranking. In services and enablers (education, financial inclusion, maternal health), it falls into high inequality category, as is the case with physical security (violence against women).

In three out of four sub-rankings, Pakistan tops gender inequality in Asia Pacific, and in the fourth (physical security), it ranks only next to Bangladesh.

In the report titled ‘The power of parity: Advancing women’s equality in Asia Pacific‘, New Zealand, Australia, Singapore and Philippines are ranked as role model countries in Asia Pacific.

In all Asia Pacific countries, women have low representation in leadership positions. Image above.

The research examines Asia Pacific as a whole with a particular focus on seven countries: Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and Singapore.

On gender equality in work, the Philippines stands out for its progress, followed by New Zealand and Singapore.

The six countries furthest from gender parity in work are Bangladesh, India, Japan, Nepal, Pakistan, and South Korea.

China does well on female labor-force participation but can improve its share of women in leadership – as can most countries in Asia.

The critical issues of gender equality, dealing with glass ceiling and women in leadership are part of modules that Skill City, a new-generation learning and coaching firm, run on the request of best-in-class Pakistani organisations that seek to enhance their productivity and effectiveness through active participation and leadership role by their female executives.

For nearly two decades, Wali Zahid, ceo of Skill City, has been running Women in Leadership (WIL) and Young Women in Leadership (Y-WIL) workshops in Pakistan and Afghanistan for organisations like British Council, The Women’s Islamic Initiative in Spirituality and Equality (WISE) USA, Lahore College for Women University (LCWU), Kinnaird College University, Lahore, Institute for Rural Management (IRM)/NRSP/HRDN, IbnSina and AKDN, some of these funded by UK’s DfID.

Wali also conceived, developed and delivered a nine-month Management Foundation Program with Gender Dimension for Pakistan’s Ministry of Women Development and ran it successfully several times during 2006-2008 on behalf of GIZ, the German foundation.

Wali’s most recent employer has been British Council where he worked as Country Director of its Management Development Services in Pakistan during 2001-2008.

Wali also has been on the Board of Governors of Pakistan Society for Training and Development (PSTD) which has been running annual WIBCON (Women in Business Conference) for over a decade.

Pakistan tops gender inequality ranking in Asia Pacific

What Pakistan exported in 2016. Worth $27.8 billion. Top 3: ICT, House linen, rice | Source: Harvard CID Atlas

Center for International Development at Harvard University (CID) is a good resource in predicting economic growth over the next 10 years. According to CID, Pakistan is predicted to grow by 6 percent over 10 years. We had broken the story for Express Tribune in 2017.

What most Pakistani readers do not know is that CID’s Atlas of Economic Complexity has some very useful data visualisations on Pakistan’s exports since 1995.

Since many people do not access CID website and they come to this blog for visual information on Pakistan economy, we have taken the liberty of reproducing screen grabs of four years of Pakistan exports.

Where did Pakistan export to in 2016. Top 3: US, China, Germany | Source: Harvard CID Atlas

Another useful resource is MIT’s The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) which produces similar data visualisations. An OEC summary of Pakistan as an exporting country is produced below. The annual export dollar amounts reported may differ between Harvard and MIT visualisations. Please check out their methodology.

Pakistan’s exports at a glance. Source: MIT’s OEC

Pakistan is the 66th largest export economy in the world. In 2016, Pakistan exported $24.2B and imported $48.1B, resulting in a negative trade balance of $23.9B.

The top exports of Pakistan are House Linens ($3.02B), Rice ($1.79B), Non-Knit Men’s Suits ($1.58B), Non-Retail Pure Cotton Yarn ($1.28B) and Heavy Pure Woven Cotton ($1B), using the 1992 revision of the HS (Harmonized System) classification.

The top export destinations of Pakistan are the United States ($3.58B), China ($1.94B), Germany ($1.7B), Afghanistan ($1.68B) and the United Kingdom ($1.43B).

What Pakistan exported in 2015. Worth $30.7 billion. Top 3: ICT, House linen, rice | Source: Harvard CID Atlas

What Pakistan exported in 2014. Worth $33.5 billion. Top 3: ICT, House linen, rice | Source: Harvard CID Atlas

What Pakistan exported in 2013. Worth $32 billion. Top 3: ICT, House linen, Cotton yarn | Source: Harvard CID Atlas

What did Pakistan export between 1995 and 2016. Top 3: Textiles and furniture, vegetables, foodstuff and wood, minerals | Source: Harvard CID Atlas

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