Pakistan to become 16th largest economy by 2050: PwC
Breaking: Pakistan fourth fastest-growing economy in the world in next 35 years
Over the next 35 years, Pakistan is forecasted to be fourth fastest-growing economy in the world, only after Vietnam, India and Bangladesh, according to a new 2017 PwC report released today.
Pakistan’s GDP MER is likely to grow at an average of 4.4 percent annually for a period up to 2050, the report titled The Long View: How will the global economic order change by 2050? by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), world’s Number 1 accounting and consulting firm, predicts.
Pakistan to become 19th largest economy by 2050 by GDP MER
By GDP (gross domestic product) MER (market exchange rates) terms, PwC forecasts Pakistan to become world’s 27th largest economy by 2030 ($776 billion) and 19th largest economy by 2050 ($2.83 trillion). Today at $284 billion, Pakistan ranks as 28th largest.
Contrary to media-induced popular belief, Pakistan is rising
The 2030 and 2050 PwC forecasts for Pakistan are quite contrary to popular belief that most in-country and overseas Pakistanis hold about Pakistan’s future, thanks in large to prime-time TV talk shows, print media and social media-induced narrative-building.
The media only emphasises poor governance, public-sector corruption and rising public debt to discredit political governments, thus ignoring the macroeconomic factors that are helping Pakistan on a path to growth.
Pakistan to become 20th largest economy by 2030 by GDP PPP
By GDP PPP (purchasing power parity) terms, Pakistan will become world’s 20th largest economy ($1.86 trillion) by 2030 and 16th largest economy by 2050 ($4.23 trillion). Today, it ranks as 24th largest ($988 billion) by GDP PPP.
Contrast Pakistan with Canada, for example. Canada is currently ranked as the 17th largest economy, but by 2030 it will slip to 18th and by 2050 to 22nd economy.
Which economies Pakistan will leave behind
By GDP PPP, in 2050, Pakistan ($4.23 trillion) will leave today’s these economic giants behind:
Iran ($3.9 trillion)
South Korea ($3.5 trillion)
Italy ($3.1 trillion)
Canada ($3.1 trillion)
Bangladesh ($3 trillion)
Malaysia ($2.8 trillion)
Thailand ($2.7 trillion)
Spain ($2.7 trillion)
South Africa ($2.5 trillion)
Australia ($2.5 trillion)
China and India top two economies in 2050
This Long View report suggests that China ($58.5 trillion) and India ($44.1 trillion) will become world’s Number 1 and Number 2 economies, respectively, by GDP PPP, leaving US ($34.1 trillion) behind at Number 3. Earlier forecasts by Goldman Sachs had put US at Number 2.
Incidentally, Pakistan is the only large country that shares border with both future giants.
Indonesia ($10.5 trillion) will become 4th largest economy by 2050 by GDP PPP terms.
Reason: Fast-growing population
The report attributes growth in Pakistan and other emerging economies to relatively fast-growing populations, boosting domestic demand and the size of the workforce. Although this growth ‘needs to be complemented with investment in education and an improvement in macroeconomic fundamentals to ensure there are sufficient jobs for growing numbers of young people in these countries.’
The growth is also attributed to falling costs of starting a business in Pakistan and other emerging economies.
Full 2017 PwC report here.
Wali Zahid is a longtime China watcher and a Pakistan futurist. An award-winning journalist, he writes on issues of significance to Pakistan and CPEC & BRI.