Pakistan ranks Number 1 in the 82 countries on which China has most influence, says a report called The China Index.

Released by Doublethink Lab, Taiwan, the report measures China's global influence in nine domains: Academia, Domestic Politics, Economy, Foreign Policy, Law Enforcement, Media, Military, Society, and Technology. Each of these domains contains 11 Indicators corresponding to an observable phenomenon of Chinese influence.

Top three domains in Pakistan where China has influence are: Technology, Foreign Policy and Military.

The least influence is in the domains of Society and Law Enforcement. 

Cambodia, Singapore and Thailand are at Number 2, Number 3, and Number 4 in the China Index respectively.

Pakistan ranks Number 1 in China influence index

What is common among China, Russia, Iran and Belarus? All four countries are under different sorts of American sanctions, and all four attended last week’s SCO Summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. 

Such is the state of the divided world we live in, made of alliances, one trying to dominate the other.

Although Chinese President Xi Jinping clearly emphasizes that unlike NATO, SCO is not an alliance, and that China is not pursuing bloc politics.

These four and six other member countries – two of them new – hope to benefit each other and the wider world in development and trade in this 10-member Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a Eurasian political, economic and security grouping, was founded in Shanghai on 15 June 2001, by China, Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The 22nd summit of the SCO member states was held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on Thursday and Friday.

The SCO countries host nearly half of the world’s population and contribute over 30 percent of the global GDP. Although they face myriad global, regional, and bilateral challenges, they are working earnestly to carve a path out under the SCO framework.

China has sent several messages to the world. 

This was Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first trip abroad since the COVID-19 pandemic hit the world in early 2020. Back in 2013, neighboring Kazakhstan was where President Xi unveiled the vision of the Silk Road Economic Belt, which became known as, alongside the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). 

After nine years, the BRI should be credited for visible and tangible achievements in infrastructure including roads and rails in dozens of countries across Eurasia and Africa. To address global challenges, President Xi introduced the Global Development Initiative (GDI) and Global Security Initiative (GSI) to complement the BRI.

With the signing a Memorandum of Obligations to become a permanent SCO member, Iran has received a big boost. India will also gain much prestige from the SCO, as the rotating presidency will be with the country this year.

Facing an account deficit and increasing costs of petroleum imports, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who said Russian pipeline gas was a possibility “with some infrastructure already in place in Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.”

A statement at Russian President’s Kremlin website said: “We need to settle the Afghan issue. There are problems with political stability there, but I hope this problem can be settled as well, because we have good relations with the people of Afghanistan. I also have in mind Pakistan’s ability to influence the situation there.”

In spite of all this, challenges remain. Climate change, for example. Floods in Pakistan, a country already under pressure because of fiscal deficit, have devastated the people and economy. Forums like SCO can help rebuild Pakistan’s flood-hit economy.

Pakistan-India bilateral ties are another example. Both countries were admitted as SCO members in 2017. In his speech at the summit, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi proposed the idea of free transit rights among SCO member countries, seeking access to Afghanistan via Pakistan, but Pakistan was unwilling to consider the proposal because of its dispute with India on the Kashmir issue.

Afghanistan, which has Observer status in SCO, also faces a series of challenges from security to economics. After the U.S. failure in the region, the SCO has a good chance of guiding Afghanistan towards some semblance of peace and stability.

Under the SCO framework, all countries have worked to embark on a new path of “pursuing dialogue instead of confrontation and building partnerships instead of alliances.” This is good for the polarized world in which we live. The Shanghai Spirit and the Samarkand Declaration are the way forward.

China watcher Wali Zahid talks about the progress and hopes from the Samarkand SCO Summit

Hope from the Samarkand SCO Summit

1 July 1921 is the founding day of Communist Party of China (CPC). Today marks its first 100 years anniversary and the Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of CPC Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, has delivered a powerful speech in Beijing highlighting the 100 years of struggle and laying bare the second centenary goal of building China into a great modern socialist country in all respects.

Xi narrated the CPC’s four great successes over a 100-year period: 1) fighting bloody battles and uniting Chinese nation; 2) building a stronger China though self-reliance; 3) achieving great success in reform and opening-up; 4) in Xi’s words ‘in pursuing a great struggle, a great project, a great cause, and a great dream through the spirit of self-confidence, self-reliance and innovation’.

While listening to Xi Jinping’s speech, I thought it was time for me to go into the past five decades and narrate the flashbacks for you.

A version of this article appeared as an Op-Ed in The Nation, Pakistan on 5 July. Another version appeared in China Pictorial, Beijing on 3 July.

Like every China watcher, my beginning of love affair with China started in the 1970’s when China Pictorial’s printed copies would reach the living rooms of most educated or literary Pakistani families. Very few color photos were available of those days’ Pakistan. So it was fascinating to see how a country could look so beautiful in print. Despite the extreme poverty both countries faced at the time, the China Pictorial’s pictures of its villages and farmlands looked really vivid and pretty.

The wire news copies I used to edit in the mid-1980s, when I started as a journalist, made it clear that China - a poor country at the time - was at the receiving end. The United States was the big bully then. And since the US controlled major media outlets and much of the international narrative, it often accused China of human rights violations and used the accusations as a weapon to humiliate China, and the other Western media blindly followed.

As an Editor of a national English-language newspaper in the 1990’s, I saw how China responded to US human rights accusations and kept its march towards nation-building, and then gaining back Hong Kong from Great Britain in 1997. While editing a wire copy, I still remember Chinese response to a comment made by a Western critic of China. It went on something like: 

Critic: After Hong Kong, it’s Taiwan’s turn.

China: No, we are not in a hurry. We can wait for 500 years. 

I was marvelled at China’s long term orientation (LTO): 500 years.

In recent years, particularly since early 2000’s, things have been changing. China is now the world’s second-largest economy in terms of GDP Nominal, it is fast closing the gap with the US. In fact, economists have forecast that China will overtake the US as the largest economy within this decade, most likely in 2028. 

China has not only lifted its entire population out of extreme poverty, but also has been the leading driver of global growth for the past more than 10 years. And the rest of the world is fully cognizant of this fact. China is the poster child of the new rising world, consolidating its national strength and expanding its global influence. 

Countries in East, South and Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa and Latin America, which are battling poverty and poor infrastructure, consider China a role model for lifting more than 800 million Chinese people out of poverty in four decades and becoming a manufacturing powerhouse. After many centuries of poverty, disease, conflicts, wars and deaths, we can now hope to see a new world led by China. 

So when China organized the First Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing in May 2017, among those who attended were 29 heads of state or government, and delegates including officials, entrepreneurs, financiers and journalists from more than 130 countries and regions. I too was one of the delegates.

True, the US stayed away from the forum - so did its allies such as Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom - but it did send a delegation at the last minute, and the UK sent its chancellor of the exchequer. 

Despite being a keen observer of China for decades, I first visited China only in 2017 - to attend the First Belt and Road Forum in Beijing. What I really liked about President Xi Jinping’s opening speech was his emphasis on peace before prosperity. Xi knew that the world is tormented by conflicts and terrorism, which are threatening world peace, and hence the greater emphasis on peace. 

Another thing that struck me as very important was that Xi devoted a large amount of time talking about China’s history, how the ancient Silk Road connected China with other civilizations in Asia, Europe and Africa. With the Belt and Road Initiative, Xi has revived the Silk Road and China is leading the world towards a better future by improving infrastructure and connectivity.

Xi was also clear that Belt and Road projects have to be based on “partnerships”, and mutual trust and respect, not the old-fashioned “alliances” championed by the US.

China’s trade in goods with other Belt and Road countries reached $1.35 trillion in 2020, up 0.7 percent year-on-year, accounting for 29.1 percent of its total foreign trade. And China has signed 205 agreements on Belt and Road cooperation with 171 countries and international organizations, according to Chu Shijia, director of the Comprehensive Department of China’s Ministry of Commerce.

Besides, China’s total trade in goods with other Belt and Road countries topped $7.8 trillion from 2013 to 2019, with more than $110 billion in non-financial overseas direct investment. China has also invested billions of dollars in other bilateral and global initiatives, and sanctioned as humanitarian aid.

While the First Belt and Road Forum in 2017 showcased China’s growing global influence, the second one in 2019 consolidated its position at the figurehead of the developing world and an upholder of multilateralism and free trade. And in the two years since then, the Belt and Road Initiative has made even more remarkable achievements.

In today’s speech, Xi has made it clear that the Chinese people will never allow any foreign force to bully, oppress or subjugate them. “Anyone who would attempt to do so will find themselves on a collision course with a great wall of steel forged by over 1.4 billion Chinese people,” he said. “We have never bullied, oppressed or subjugated the people of any other country, and we never will.”

These are the words that give me assurance that the world will be a better place to live under China as a superpower than it was during Great Britain’s 200 years and USA’s 100 years of world domination.

Wali Zahid gives an up-and-close account of China's rise on the world stage

5 decades of flashbacks on CPC’s 100 years

Recently I was on a visit to the USA when the third volume of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s book, The Governance of China, was published. One of my Chinese friends who work at the Chinese newspapers I occasionally write for was kind enough to courier me a copy to our Houston, Texas, address. The book took several weeks to arrive, reasons unknown, possibly because of the US-China trade tensions and the closure of China’s Houston Consulate by the US authorities. By the time the book arrived, I had already landed in Islamabad.

The volume makes such a fascinating reading that I wouldn’t want the learning remaining limited to me only. There’s so much we could learn from China’s experiences and its President Xi Jinping’s wisdom. Here’s my attempt in picking a nugget or two from his recent volume.

The third volume of The Governance of China, is a collection of 92 articles, speeches, etc, of President Xi Jinping between middle of 2017 and early 2020. In 19 sections it discusses topics ranging from national governance and China’s reform and opening up to global community. 

The 19 sections of The Governance of China include:

Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era 

Poverty Elimination and a Moderately Prosperous Society 

Hong Kong, Macao and China's Peaceful Reunification 

As you will see, even the topic list is fascinating and shows the intellectual depth of Chinese leadership. For example, Xi’s choice of wordings demonstrate China’s internal assessment of their stage of growth and stature. Aspirational but realistic, Chinese leadership knows how to either raise expectations of the world and its population or manage these expectations. Examples:

Instead of painting as the next superpower as the mainstream US or global media does, Xi Jinping refers to China as a ‘major country’. Reference his June 22, 2018 speech ‘Break New Ground in China's Major-Country Diplomacy.’

Similarly, Xi does not just refer to continuing GDP growth as the only next aim but adds high-quality prefix. Reference his December 18, 2017 speech ‘China’s Economy: From High-Speed Growth to High-Quality Development.’

In China’s battle to combat poverty, Xi manages global expectation that China is not going to be next G7 or Europe any time soon. Unlike our Pakistani leaders who routinely call our cities’ future as next Paris, Xi portrays poverty alleviation efforts aiming at a moderately prosperous society. Reference his October 25, 2017 speech ‘Poverty Elimination and a Moderately Prosperous Society.’

So as a student of political science if you get the opportunity to go through this volume, you will come out much informed and become a visionary about nuances of China’s stride in becoming the next superpower, without saying these words.

Another chapter that caught my eye was what Pakistan is going through at the moment: a balance-of-power struggle between civilian supremacy, led by PDM last year and the Pakistan military influence, since the inception of country in 1947. China once faced a similar struggle between who’s in charge: military or communist party? Xi’s clarity is worth considering. 

While he emphasises military’s preparedness and combat capability, Xi Jinping’s emphatic words are worth considering: ‘The absolute Party [CPC] leadership over the armed forces must be upheld, the full and strict Party governance must be exercised.’ Reference his August 17, 2018 speech ‘Strengthen the Party's Leadership and Organizations in the Military.’

In another comment during Central Military Commission meeting, Xi said the primary task is to uphold the absolute CPC leadership over the armed forces. ‘The political building of the Party should be intensified to make sure that the whole military resolutely upholds the authority of the CPC Central Committee and its centralized, unified leadership, and resolutely obeys the command of the CPC Central Committee and the CMC.’

Xi also urged efforts to improve Party conduct and combat corruption in the armed forces. ‘The anti-corruption fight must be carried forward with firmness, and there will be no deviation.’

It was the same month when Xi ordered the country's military to get out of the kindergarten business and focus on fighting. The commercial landscape of Pakistan mirrors early days of China before his balance-of-power struggle took a decisive phase.

Only a year ago, speaking at the first-ever Army Day parade to celebrate the 90th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) at a remote Zhurihe Combined Tactics Training Base in northern China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, 400km from Beijing where 12,000 PLA troops took part - which this writer reported in this paper - President Xi issued a demand for loyalty, asking the troops to ‘unswervingly stick to the fundamental principle and system of the party’s absolute leadership over the army,’ ‘always listen to and follow the party’s orders,’ and ‘march to wherever the party points to.’

Xi’s anti-corruption moves in recent years have taken down several top-ranking generals, some of whom had grip on power for decades. Media today in Pakistan when free highlights similar cases of large-scale corruption which needs to be curbed. Only time will tell which direction we in Pakistan take. 

A version of this article appeared in The Nation, Islamabad.

This article later appeared in several Chinese publications including China Today, China Pictorial, Beijing Review. 

What I learnt from third volume of Xi Jinping’s The Governance of China

In party vs army, leadership lies with CPC: Xi

China is set to overtake US as the world's biggest economy by 2028, says a report in CEBR - Centre for Economics and Business Research - a UK-based consultancy group.

In its annual league table of the growth prospects of 193 countries released today, CEBR said China would grow by 2% in 2020 and the value of China’s economy in dollar terms would exceed that of the US by 2028, five years sooner than CEBR expected a year ago. The reason: China bounced back quickly from the effects of Covid-19 as opposed to its rival economies, like the US.

For several years, we have been comparing the GDP (PPP) of China and US economies and making predictions when China will overtake in GDP Nominal. Check out this piece.

The question when China will overtake US as the world's biggest economy has been answered. The year is 2028.

China to overtake US as world's biggest economy by 2028

On Saturday, China held a national mourning for its doctors, paramedics and citizens who died in the fight against novel coronavirus outbreak and the patients who died of COVID-19 disease.

The mourning day serves as an appropriate occasion to document China’s response to global pandemic and what other affected countries could learn from it.

China’s response to novel coronavirus outbreak has been remarkable and unprecedented at several levels. Here are nine.

First, the decisive and clear-headed leadership developed through one-party CPC rule and incumbents’ graduation to positions of authority with years of experience in managing local and national affairs. The authorities in Wuhan city and Hubei province in central China, the epicenter of the outbreak, wasted no time in locking down cities when it was clear that the virus is deadly to humans. The one-party rule also saved time that democracies usually need in building bipartisan or multi-party consensus on potentially consequential decisions.

Second, the Chinese people did not react to quarantine and lockdown restrictions with resistance or panic. They stayed homes and when outside used masks to stop the coronavirus transmissions to potentially millions more and helping the authorities to flatten the curve. Also, there was no panic among general public in buying items of daily use like masks, paper towels or water like what we saw in recent weeks in the US or other affected countries.

Third, China being the ‘factory of the world’ was able to produce enough masks, sanitizers, PPEs, medical equipment and supplies to meet its demand in Wuhan, Hubei and other cities when the outbreak spread there. In fact, during a research in late January, I learnt that overseas Chinese bought masks from local markets and sent these back to China to meet local needs.

Fourth, using technology, China was able to monitor, track and quarantine the infected individuals and carriers of coronavirus. Nothing escaped the big brother. It was the same technology that South Korea and Singapore used to track and isolate patients from population at large, the latter with much faster response time.

Rapid and comprehensive response to rising cases

Fifth, true to the proverbial ‘China speed’, China was able to construct a 1,000-bed hospital in Wuhan in 10 days to admit coronavirus patients. Chinese doctors and paramedics fought the infectious disease with extra hours and dedication and some even gave their lives. The survivors will be long indebted to these brave individuals. Similarly, as opposed to other countries like the US and Europe, availability of enough diagnostic kits for testing the large number of population was not an issue in China.

Sixth, hoping that the data about confirmed cases and deaths provided by China’s CDC is correct and not under-reported as many in West believe, China was able to control the speed of new cases and resulting deaths. Since I started sharing the count of cases on social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook every day since Wuhan was locked down on 23 January, the percentage increase had been relatively small and in two digits. It was only between 10-24 February that the new reported deaths were in triple digits, 254 being the highest number on 13 February. Now, compare that with Italy’s highest single-day deaths of 971 on 28 March, 1,059 in United States on 2 April, 950 in Spain on 3 April, 743 in UK on 2 April, and 509 in France on 2 April.

Seventh, true to a YouGov survey of optimist populations in the world and China ranking at top, by 3 February, China’s CDC started updating the figures for recovered patients. The daily recovery count shifted the global outlook from confirmed cases and deaths to a new hope and optimism.

Eighth, where cities and populations were not as severely affected by coronavirus, China remained business as usual where it could: Inbound and outbound flights remained operational and factories remained open. Supply of essential items, food, groceries was not affected. The municipal services and disinfecting the cities remained functional.

Ninth, fighting fake news, propaganda and Western accusations. On January 24, US President Trump tweeted praise for President Xi Jinping in containing coronavirus outbreak, because by that time the virus impact was in early stage and limited to the China Mainland. When in March coronavirus hit other countries and the US in particular, Trump went critical of China and started calling it the China virus, a racist term. Many other analysts called it Wuhan virus. China, in concert with WHO, faced this fake news phenomena with balance and resilience. There are still articles being published on mysteries about the origin of virus, the whistleblowing doctor, suppression of information and slow initial Chinese response and the veracity of CDC numbers. Accusations and counter-accusations are in play on Twitter and the world media outlets and both countries have expelled each other’s journalists.

By mid-March it was clear that the pandemic curve had flattened in China as no new domestic cases were reported on 18-20 March, and Chinese businesses could restore their work routine. While these were now being shut down in rest of the world including the US, on 13 March, all 42 Apple Stores were reopened in China. In the second fortnight of March and first fortnight in April, China was the only place on earth where Apple Stores were open.

On 25 March, China lifted lockdown in Hubei with the exception of Wuhan and opened transport services. From 8 April, outbound traffic from Wuhan will be available.

By end-February, it appeared that new coronavirus epicenters had started to emerge – first Iran and South Korea, and then European countries – Italy in particular – followed by Spain, Netherlands, Germany, and UK. The United States followed.

By 19 March, Italy had crossed China in confirmed deaths at 3,200. Now, deaths in Italy are five times that of China.

By 26 March, the US had crossed China in confirmed number of cases, then at 82,000. Now, the US has nearly 300,000 confirmed cases, according to Johns Hopkins University.

It was now China’s turn to make its lessons learnt available to the rest of the world. China offered information sharing, case handling expertise, medical supplies and even Chinese doctors and paramedics to the new coronavirus epicenters of the world. It is now sending ventilators, masks and medics to Italy, France, Iran, the UK, and Pakistan.

China is now in a positioned to act as the world’s largest benefactor both in terms of how it contained coronavirus outbreak which it can pass on to rest of the world, but also supplying testing kits, ventilators and medical supplies and even doctors. President Xi has extended hand to all world leaders including the US President Trump. But it was not until 27 March when the US coronavirus cases surpassed China’s that President Trump tweeted about working closely with China. Hope this bodes well for both world superpowers and the humanity at large.

With the dysfunctional leadership of American President Donald Trump and UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson in dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, Chinese President Xi Jinping is emerging as a capable leader who can help the world fight the epidemic. I am reminded of what was said by Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic to reporters on 16 March: ‘The only country that can help us is China. For the rest of them [EU leaders], thanks for nothing.’

An earlier version of this article appeared in China Daily, Beijing on 3 April 2020. An updated version also appeared in The Nation, Islamabad, Pakistan, on 5 April.

Wali Zahid is a longtime China watcher and a Pakistan futurist. An award-winning journalist and formerly Editor of The News, Lahore, Pakistan’s largest-selling daily, he writes on issues of significance to Pakistan, CPEC & BRI and occasionally contributes to China Daily, People’s Daily China, China Pictorial, and Global Times.

As President of Institute of Media and Communications (IMC), Wali was a high-level delegate at Belt & Road Forum in Beijing in May 2017 and has spoken at Think Tanks Forum in Beijing. 

Wali offers nine reasons how China contained coronavirus breakout

How China contained coronavirus breakout

In January this year, China, the 4,000-year-old civilization of inventions such as paper money, and discoveries like the compass and printing, and home to the Great Wall, a masterpiece of architecture and grandeur, was struck by an outbreak of the novel coronavirus. Although not as deadlier as its earlier counterparts, coronavirus (COVID-19) deeply affected the lives of millions of Chinese people, bringing a setback to the whole nation.

China took an immediate action to contain the coronavirus by locking down or quarantining major hubs and cities.

It was only because of China’s iron will, capability and governance system that most of the fatalities from the deadly virus could be contained to Wuhan, the city at the epicentre of the epidemic, and Hubei province. 

When I spoke to head of Pakistan’s chief biological program expert, he praised China saying that only China was able to contain the outflow with decisiveness and without panic. No other nation on earth, not even US or Japan, could have done so. You can check flawed episode of Japan’s cruise ship quarantine.

The bigger challenge now is coronavirus’s international spread. Although at the writing of this piece in end-February, the deaths in other countries like Japan, South Korea, Iran, Italy and Hong Kong, are in early double digits, when compared with over 2,700 deaths in mainland China.

Had it been any other developed or developing country, the number of deaths and virus spread could have been worse. In case of an outbreak in a place like Pakistan, the loss could have been unimaginable. We did not even have testing facilities, much less the capability to combating the outbreak.

The same is the spirit of the overseas Chinese. While researching the face mask shortage around the globe, I found out that overseas Chinese were buying masks in their residence countries and sending these back to China because China needs 100’s of millions of masks daily. This was an amazing sense of national care and unity.

With the West and the developed world shutting its doors to Chinese travelers, Pakistan was the first country which resumed the flights to and from China, only suspending travel for three days. 

Pakistan, an all-weather friend and iron brother of China, stood strong with its eastern neighbour. We support China as they go through this incredibly saddening time, as we have done so before during devastating natural disasters, and as they have done so for us, uncountably so. 

The upper house of the Parliament of Pakistan, the Senate, unanimously passed a resolution expressing solidarity and support for the government of China and our Chinese brothers and sisters. 

Pakistan has donated medical supplies, along with sending in medical teams, to aid our Chinese brethren in helping contain this epidemic. Airports and the respective aviation authorities of Pakistan and China are working in close coordination to monitor passengers and create a safe environment for our citizens. This sends a strong signal to the international community that Pakistan stands strong with China. 

It was because of these efforts that Lijian Zhao, spokesperson of Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China, acknowledged Pakistan role and said on 24 February: ‘After the outbreak, Pakistan was among the first countries to voice support and make donations to China. Its legislature passed resolutions in support of our efforts, the first move of this kind in the world. China will take good care of Pakistanis in China like our own citizens.’

With the West banning Chinese passengers and suspending flights to and from China, China faced incredible difficulties. This incurred heavy losses to the Chinese and their industries with manufacturing being reduced and even halted in some parts of the country, and international relations with some nations deteriorating.

The West also went ahead and racially labeled the scientific novel outbreak as “China virus”, which was not China’s response to the deadly SARS/H1N1 or MERS outbreaks. 

China has dedicated all of their numerous resources towards helping end this epidemic. True to the China speed, China constructed a 1,000-bed emergency hospital with up to date tech and equipment in Wuhan, the home of the novel virus, in 10 days.

Although the remedy antiviral drug may not be available until April, China was able to successfully trial-run various supportive drugs by end-February and found an early interim remedy.

Since the January outbreak, I have been sharing daily statistics of the reported cases, deaths, and fortunately now the increasing number of recoveries on my social media platforms which have hundreds of thousands of followers. 

This was necessary as too much fake news is circulating on the social media like Twitter and Facebook, also because these media are not accessible in China. Dealing with fake news and WhatsApp propaganda is part of my Project Ignorance which I run under Institute of Media & Communications (IMC), a think tank, which produces reports on BRI and CPEC.

China along with WHO is taking major steps to combat fake news and producing a daily dossier of reported cases, deaths and recoveries.

I asked my social media friends on what they think of China and its response to the epidemic.

Ch. Amjad Farooq, who runs a Twitter handle on CPEC, said: ‘The shock of corona epidemic is surely temporary and China is dealing with the most challenging situation with utmost care and as per ethics and principles laid down by WHO. The fundamentals of China’s long-term economic development in the form of BRI will remain unchanged. The pace of China-Pakistan brotherly cooperation will keep progressing in the form of CPEC and beyond. Prayers and more power to China from friends of CPEC.’

Zamir Ahmed Awan, a professor at NUST university, said: ‘Trust Chinese governance and leadership to overcome Convid-19.’

Dr Aziz Ur Rehman, who is advisor to the President of IIUI university, said: ‘China has to show a true leadership in the area of global pharmaceutical R&D. It has done quite well in recent years in terms of manufacturing of generic pharmaceutical products and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients of originators drugs but China’s ability to develop innovative drugs, vaccines and diagnostics as industry leader has yet to be established.’

Coronavirus is perhaps such a window which would accelerate this capability.

We must trust our very capable Chinese brothers and sisters and remember them in our thoughts and assure them that they are not going through this time alone. They would overcome the epidemic soon, although the path to full economic and financial recovery may take time.

This piece originally appeared in China Pictorial, Beijing, and The Nation, Pakistan.

Wali Zahid is a longtime China watcher and a Pakistan futurist. An award-winning journalist and formerly Editor of The News, Lahore, Pakistan’s largest-selling daily, he writes on issues of significance to Pakistan, CPEC & BRI and occasionally contributes to People’s Daily China, China Pictorial, Global Times. 

As President of Institute of Media and Communications (IMC), Wali was a high-level delegate at Belt & Road Forum in Beijing in May 2017 and has spoken at Think Tanks Forum in Beijing.

As early as February, Wali predicted why China could overcome COVID-19 epidemic

Trust China to overcome Coronavirus epidemic

I just returned from China after attending the first global Conference on Dialogue of Asian Civilizations (CDAC) in Beijing and the Asian Culture Carnival staged at Beijing’s Olympic Stadium. Both mega events were addressed by President Xi Jinping. I also had the chance to attend The Belt and Road Media and Think Tank Exchange Event in Nanjing later in the week.

I had the chance to speak at allied events in both Beijing and Nanjing, assessing China’s challenges in creating an Asian appeal, dealing with US (ongoing trade war, 5G technology and President Trump’s ban on Huawei, China’s technology and mobile giant) and reaching out to five billion non-Chinese-speaking.

Back home in Islamabad, I was able to attend a reception today for China’s Vice President Wang Qishan, who’s here to sign MoUs on CPEC.

This piece appeared on Op-Ed in The Nation, Islamabad, on 30 May 2019.

Since I mostly see future through a macroeconomic lens, I could assure my global audience in China that it is beyond US potential to stop China from rising to the world stage as the next economic superpower.

If beating US economy by a trillion dollar every year is an indicator, China is likely to emerge victor from trade war with US.

Since 2014 when China first overtook the US economy by GDP purchasing power parity (PPP), China has been leaving the US economy behind by nearly a trillion dollar every year.

With $27.3 trillion in size by PPP in 2019, China is now $6 trillion ahead of the US, currently at $21.3 trillion, according to World Data Atlas which monitors the global economies through a variety of indicators.

The US had been the world’s largest economy for over 140 years. In 1872, the US had deprived Britain, then the world’s largest economy, of this title. In 2014, China did the same for the US.

In terms of GDP Nominal, the US is still the largest economy in the world, with 2019 GDP at $21.3 trillion, compared with China’s $14.2 trillion. China is likely to overtake US by GDP Nominal by 2028.

According to economists, GDP purchasing-power-parity (PPP) compares different countries’ currencies through a market ‘basket of goods’ approach. Two currencies are in PPP when a market basket of goods (taking into account the exchange rate) is priced the same in both countries. For example, what goods 10 dollars can buy in the US, in China, or in Pakistan? Or, how much does a McDonald’s burger cost in the US versus its price in China?

Comparable developed countries rank higher in GDP Nominal while comparable developing countries rank higher in GDP PPP because prices of goods are cheaper in developing countries as a US dollar, for example, can buy more in China than in the US.

In 1980, the US GDP PPP was $2.9 trillion, nearly 10 times more than China while China was at merely $306 billion that year.

In 2018, China’s exports to the world accounted for $2.3 trillion. In 1985, the Chinese exports were only $27 billion, a fraction of today’s exports.

Another noteworthy example is China’s head-on war with extreme poverty. In 1981, 88% of Chinese population was extremely poor. Last year, only 3% Chinese population was under extreme poverty, according to a University of Oxford study.

Other more recent indicators of China’s economic rise:

The BIG: According to the Forbes 2019 ranking of world’s biggest public companies, five of world’s 10 biggest public companies are Chinese. Their ranking with 2019 market capitalisation:

4 Agricultural Bank of China $197 billion

Tech firms like Huawei, Alibaba and TenCent are also among the largest conglomerates in the world.

The Fortune 500: Similarly, the latest 2018 Fortune Global 500 ranking shows a shift in the world’s business landscape. Three of top four Fortune-500 firms are now Chinese. Their 2018 annual revenues:

The Largest: Similarly, six of the world’s 15 largest employers in 2018 were Chinese organisations. Their ranking and number of employees:

4 China National Petroleum Corporation 1.5 million

13 State Grid Corporation of China 926,067

The shippers: Another measure of world trade movement: Half of world’s top 20 container ports in 2019 are in China, according to Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and World Shipping Council data. Shanghai is world’s biggest container port, with 37.1 million TEUs.

The out-bound tourists: The Chinese are already the world’s largest group of out-bound tourists. In 2017, they spent over $258 billion, 21 percent of the world market, according to United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNTWO).

How economic rise results in global influence

China’s economic rise has brought laurels to Chinese political leadership and President Xi Jinping is in the global spotlight. It also brought yuan into SDR basket of IMF currencies as the fifth global currency.

The Powerful: Another measure of influence and power: In 2018 annual ranking of The World’s Most Powerful People by American magazine, Forbes, President Xi Jinping seized the top spot.

This is for the first time ever that Xi clinched this spot, as Chinese CPC Congress removed term limits broadening his influence. Xi enjoys a cult of personality not seen since Chairman Mao, says Forbes.

Xi’s elevation to the world’s most powerful person unseated Russian President Vladimir Putin (#2), who held the top spot for an unprecedented four consecutive years. Putin has ruled Russia since May of 2000.

With the unprecedented economic development China could challenge the global financial system led by World Bank and IMF with influence from the USA. China-led AIIB and BRICS New Development Bank are examples of initiatives that signaled to the world that China was not willing to stay as a bystander and it needed its centre-stage presence, not accorded to China thus far.

The 2013 Belt and Road Initiative connecting 68 countries in Asia, Africa and Europe and with connectivity and infrastructure projects worth over $1 trillion is a landmark initiative, many comparing it with Marshall Plan, the postwar reconstruction plan by US.

With nearly $60 trillion in size, China will continue to be the world’s largest economy by GDP PPP in 2050, according to PwC, the world’s largest accounting firm.

The other measure through which economies are measured is GDP Nominal. China’s GDP stood at $13.4 trillion in 2018. By this number, China is world’s second largest economy after the US.

However, by GDP Nominal as well, China is set to become the world’s largest economy within this decade.

According to a study by Citigroup Inc, Number 30 in Fortune 500, China’s nominal GDP will reach $28 trillion by 2025 compared with $26 trillion for the US. This is based on anticipated growth rates and a gradual appreciation of the yuan to 5 per dollar from 6.8 now, says Citi.

According to Goldman Sachs, the world’s largest investment bank, China’s GDP will be at $52.6 trillion in 2050, nearly double the size of the US.

In years to come, 2019 could be viewed as a tipping point for global asset allocation, says a Bloomberg report. It says investors could send $3.36 trillion of new capital into China from abroad by 2025.

According to FT, as China opens its doors, assets sourced from Chinese clients could reach $9.3 trillion by 2023.

This earlier versions of this piece appeared in The News International, Pakistan’s largest-selling English-language daily.

Since 2014, China has been leaving the US behind by a trillion dollar every year in GDP PPP.

If beating US economy by trillion $ every year is an indicator, China to emerge victor from trade war with US

Written originally for China Pictorial, Beijing

Back in 2013, I was conducting a training module on Aviation Leadership for a newly-recruited, smart cohort of officers of Pakistan’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) at their residential campus in southern city of Hyderabad. Giving them a case of China’s Comac assigned to manufacture Chinese passenger planes in 10 years that beat 100-year-old Boeing and Airbus at their game, I asked if this capability was achievable in five-to-10 years. Most of them shook their heads, saying it was impossible. Someone said only if a miracle happens. And I said the miracle will happen. Indeed, the miracle happened. In May 2017, Comac-made C919 made its first test flight.

This is the story of China’s 40-year reform and opening up. Pick any area – from technology to education to culture – China has surprised the world.

In two areas – poverty reduction and economic development – China’s miracles are remarkable and unparalleled.

Taking 700 million out of poverty in four decades was unthinkable in the eyes of global economists and China defied their belief. Back in 1978, over 97 percent population was under extreme poverty; in 2018, only 3 percent (30 million) was accounted for as poor. This is nearly 20 million people each year coming out of poverty.

Let me concentrate for a few moments on China’s economic-development miracle.

In 1978, when the reform and opening up began with Deng Xiaoping speech and setting up of four SEZs, China’s share in the world economy was merely 1.75 percent, at $150 billion. In 2018, it rose to 15 percent of the world economy, making China the world’s second largest economy.

In the 40 years since reform, China beat all other countries by achieving the maximum growth in a 40-year period to the tune of 3,500 percent. This is unprecedented.

With $23.2 trillion in size by PPP in 2018, China is now $4 trillion ahead of the US, currently at $19.4 trillion, according to World Data Atlas which monitors the global economies through a variety of indicators.

In terms of GDP Nominal, the US is still the largest economy in the world, with 2018 GDP at $19.4 trillion, compared with China’s $12.2 trillion.

Per capita income in China has increased 50-­fold from $156 in 1978 to nearly $9,000 in 2018.

In 2018, China’s foreign trade volume exceeded $4 trillion, 200 times the size in 1978.

Since 2006, China has held the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves, which in 2018 stood at $3.15 trillion. In 1978, China’s foreign exchange reserves were at measly $170 million.

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Other recent indicators of China’s economic rise

According to the 2018 Forbes ranking of world’s biggest public companies, five of world’s 10 biggest public companies are Chinese. Their ranking with market capitalisation:

5 Agricultural Bank of China $184 billion

10 Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China $181 billion

Tech firms like Alibaba and TenCent are also among the largest conglomerates in the world.

Similarly, in 2016, four of the world’s 10 largest employers were Chinese organisations. Their ranking and number of employees:

6 China National Petroleum Corporation 1.6 million

7 State Grid Corporation of China 1.5 million

Another measure: Half of world’s top 20 container ports in 2018 were in China, according to Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) projections. Shanghai is world’s biggest container port, with 38.5 million TEUs.

Chinese tourists are already the world’s largest group of out-bound tourists. In 2016, they spent over $261 billion, 21 percent of the world market, according to United Nations World Tourism Organization.

In 2018 annual ranking of The World’s Most Powerful People by American magazine, Forbes, President Xi Jinping seized the top spot.

With the unprecedented economic development China could challenge the global financial system led by World Bank and IMF with influence from the USA. China-led AIIB and BRICS Development Bank are examples of initiatives that signaled to the world that China was not willing to stay as a bystander and it needed its centre-stage presence, not accorded to China thus far.

Wali Zahid

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