How does Pakistan🇵🇰’s economic trajectory appear in years 2017, 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2050?
In this exclusive piece, I take a look at 2050 first, then run it backwards to this year for you. Enjoy the ride.
According to Goldman Sachs, the world’s largest investment bank (Number 78 in 2017 Fortune-500 list), Pakistan will be among top 20 economies in the world by GDP (gross domestic product). Goldman Sachs is the one that coined term BRICS, followed by N-11 (Next 11). Pakistan is one of N-11.
In their latest version available, Pakistan’s ranking is 18th largest (see above). Pakistan will be ahead of Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Switzerland, Saudi Arabia and Australia, some economies that are currently ahead of Pakistan.
Pakistan economy size in 2050: $3.33 trillion. Peer economies in 2050: Canada, Italy and Egypt, which Pakistan can easily beat. Source: BBC
By GDP purchase power parity (PPP), Pakistan will be 16th largest economy in the world in 2050, according to PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC), the world’s biggest accounting firm. Source: National Post, Canada.
Pakistan economy size by PPP in 2050: $4.2 trillion. Peer economies in 2050: Egypt, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and France, which Pakistan can easily beat.
Pakistan will be 20th largest economy in the world by GDP PPP, according to PwC. Pakistan economy size by PPP in 2030: $1.9 trillion.
According to HSBC, once world’s number 1 commercial bank (now at number 7, thanks to first four spots being taken over by the Chinese banks and at Number 48 in this year’s Forbes Global 2000), Pakistan’s GDP growth leading to 2030 and onwards is estimated at nearly 5 percent. Worth noting is consistent increase in Pakistan’s GDP growth.
According to Centre for International Development (CID) at Harvard University, world’s number 1 ranking university, Pakistan’s GDP growth will be around 6 percent over the next 10 years. This in their The Atlas of Economic Complexity. Pakistan’s growth will only be behind India and Uganda, match Kenya and ahead of Indonesia and China.
According to BMI Research UK, Pakistan will be among the top 10 fastest growing economies over the next 10 years. These 10 economies will contribute $4.3 trillion to world GDP. It’s like creating a new Japan. Reported by World Economic Forum (WEF), Switzerland, which runs Davos Summit for world’s top leaders every year. Source: WEF
According to Oxford Economics, growth in emerging economies will outpace growth in developed nations over the coming decade. The graphic above shows Pakistan and other N-11 emerging economies growing better than G-7 nations.
According to the IMF, Pakistan’s GDP will grow by 5.5 percent by 2020. Source: Statista
According to the June 2017 edition of Global Economic Prospects by World Bank, Pakistan’s GDP will grow by 5.5 percent by 2018.
According to economic and financial indicators updated twice-daily by The Economist, London, world’s foremost economic newspaper, Pakistan is the world’s fifth fastest growing economy today.
By another measure, Pakistan is the world’s fastest growing Muslim economy, ahead of Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt and Turkey, four economies worth watching.
On 1 June this year, after nine years as a Frontier Market, index provider MSCI reclassified Pakistan from Frontier to Emerging Market status. This reclassification only proves Pakistan is not there where it had been these nine years (during Musharraf and Zardari years. Pakistan is one among only 9 Asian emerging markets. Source: MSCI
Much of this has been said in my two TEDx talks, this one at NUST Karachi. Please forgive my stammering. Below:
Some of the above has been said before in my 14 August Independence Day pieces for The News in 2014 edition and 2016 edition and for a piece for The Express Tribune in 2017.
This article forms the basis for my Facebook Live video on 1 July. In Urdu. Below:
Pakistan today is the world’s 40th largest economy by GDP (at $300 billion) and 25th largest by GDP PPP (at $1+ trillion). Source: walizahid.com
Subscribe to our YouTube channel: Wali Zahid
Understanding Pakistan Series by Wali
What to expect in Pakistan in 2017
Back to the future: Pakistan in 2050
Wali on Pakistan of future
Long Term Orientation in Pakistan: from Zero to 50 in 2 years
Pakistani culture through 6-D Model
Native languages in Pakistan
How future oriented are we?
How we messed up Pakistan: A series by Wali
Pakistan’s two value crimes no one talks about
Is Whatsapp your source of info? Welcome to Project Ignorance
Wali Zahid is an award-winning journalist, futurist, disruptor, blogger, social media strategist, reformer, LinkedIn writer and author of iBook, Great Training in 10 Steps.
He runs a #Pakistan2050 hashtag on Twitter and appears on national TV on issues of significance to Pakistan.
On walizahid.com, he’s writing a series called How We Messed Up Pakistan.
As CEO of SkillCity, he coaches several Fortune-500 CEOs on leadership.
He’s founder of a global movement for humanizing medical education and practice. He’s President of Institute of Media & Communications (IMC) which he founded in 1993.
PS: When you share this data on your blog or other media, do mention the source.