You have already seen our long-term Pakistan 2050 forecast. Do you know, in spite of terrorism wave and governance challenges, how Pakistan will fare in the medium term, say by 2025?

Pakistan’s predicted annual growth rate for the next 10 years is 5.07 percent, according to the Center for International Development at Harvard University (CID) research published recently.

Although China is a huge-sized economy and cannot be compared with Pakistan, Pakistan’s 5.07 percent growth rate is above China, which is set to grow by 4.28 percent.

Except for India, Pakistan will beat all regional economies in growth. These include today’s giant Muslim economies. Here are some:

Malaysia 4.89

Indonesia 4.82

Turkey 4.66

UAE 2.16

Saudi Arabia 2.20

Sri Lanka 3.57

Also see: 

Back to the future: Pakistan in 2050

What to expect in Pakistan in 2017

CID at Harvard is using a newly updated measure of economic complexity to forecast annual growth rates over the next decade. The CID believes that the higher growth rates will come because of gains in productive capabilities.

Pakistan’s two giant neighbours – China and India – are predicted to grow by 4.28 percent and 6.98 percent respectively.

CID experts have predicted that India may be the fastest growing global economy in the world in the next decade.

The CID believes that the countries with the greatest potential for growth are located mainly in South Asia and East Africa.

This is the global forecast by IMF on national unemployment and inflation rates through to 2020. With <5 percent, Pakistan can been seen in green.


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It’s the economy, stupid


HowMuch.net created the above scaled map to show the forecasted growth rates.

The countries are scaled according to their predicted growth rate. Thus, India appears larger than the United States with a predicted growth rate of only 2.58 percent.

As can be seen from the map, India appears larger on the map than its neighbour China to the north.

The gains in productive capabilities have allowed India to diversify exports into more complex products such as pharmaceuticals, vehicles and electronics.

Historically, gains in economic complexity have resulted in higher incomes.

What happens in East Africa?

There are a number of countries in East Africa that are projected to grow at least 5.5 percent annually.

Five countries in the region appear on the top ten of the CID list including Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Malawi and Madagascar.

In addition, there are countries in both the Middle East and South America that appear poised to take off.

Jordan and Israel have projected annual growth rates in excess of 4 percent. Guatemala has a projected growth rate of 5.22 percent, while Honduras and Mexico are both over 4 percent.


See also, some other indices on Pakistan:

Pakistani passport ranked second worst for international travel

Pakistan’s global competitiveness – in 11 photos

Pakistan ranks 11th worst in Global Hunger Index

Pakistan 11th strongest military in the world

Pakistan 15th most powerful military in the world

Pakistan at rock bottom in Human Capital Index

Pakistan ranks 5th in terrorism-affected countries list

Pakistan ranks 14th on Fragile States Index 2016

Will Pakistan risk falling behind when S Asia ups economic game

Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria 3 polio endemic countries

Pakistan #106 in Good Country Index

91% Pakistanis have access to drinking water: Unicef/WHO

Pakistan 65th most vulnerable country to face climate change

Which country has the worst air pollution? | Hint: Pakistan


What happens to US, UK & Germany?

At the same time, economic growth is anticipated to slow in advanced economies.

The US is anticipated to only grow 2.58 percent. The UK is forecasted at a slightly higher 3.22 percent. Germany, one of the leading economies in Europe, is forecasted with an annual growth rate of only 0.35 percent.

The CID also notes that economies based on commodity output face slower growth rates as commodity prices continue to remain under pressure.

The CID uses economic complexity as their indicator for economic growth after a decade of research.


The world we live in:

The world in 2100

In a few years, people may live up to 100 years

The world’s most spoken languages

Pakistan 6th most populous country now and in 2050

2050: What if cities ruled the world?

Africa: Nigeria largest economy, China largest single trading partner

The World Bank, meet your challenger: China-led AIIB

Total fertility rate falling in world; rising in Africa, Pakistan

Number of nuclear warheads down worldwide, up in S Asia

Xi Jinping: most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong


This research has found countries that diversify their production knowledge beyond what is expected see faster income growth.

This is a much more accurate indicator of future growth as compared with the popular World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index.

For example, the CID says that Greece has been an outlier for having a higher income level than would be expected for its level of economic complexity. The country has struggled with average negative annual growth over the past decade.

The CID says that looking at economic complexity may help policymakers.

By finding ways to bring new production and product capability into a country, it could help to strengthen growth in the future. The key is getting the new knowledge to come into the area which depends in part on immigration policy, as well as education policy.

Edited report from HowMuch.net.

pakistan-gdp-to-grow-by-5-over-next-10-years


Understanding Pakistan Series

What to expect in Pakistan in 2017

Back to the future: Pakistan in 2050

Wali on Pakistan of future

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Native languages in Pakistan

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How we messed up Pakistan: A series by Wali

Pakistan’s two value crimes no one talks about

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