Harvard predicts Pakistan GDP to grow by 5% over next 10 years
Pakistan’s predicted annual growth rate for the next 10 years is 5.07%, according to the Center for International Development at Harvard University (CID) research published recently.
Pakistan’s 5.07% growth rate is above China, which is set to grow by 4.28%.
Except for India, Pakistan will beat all regional economies in growth. Here are some:
Saudi Arabia 2.20
Sri Lanka 3.57
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CID at Harvard is using a newly updated measure of economic complexity to forecast annual growth rates over the next decade. The CID believes that the higher growth rates will come because of gains in productive capabilities.
Pakistan’s two giant neighbours – China and India – are predicted to grow by 4.28% and 6.98% respectively.
CID experts have predicted that India may be the fastest growing global economy in the world in the next decade.
The CID believes that the countries with the greatest potential for growth are located mainly in South Asia and East Africa.
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HowMuch.net created the above scaled map to show the forecasted growth rates.
The countries are scaled according to their predicted growth rate. Thus, India appears larger than the United States with a predicted growth rate of only 2.58%.
As can be seen from the map, India appears larger on the map than its neighbor China to the north.
The gains in productive capabilities have allowed India to diversify exports into more complex products such as pharmaceuticals, vehicles and electronics.
Historically, gains in economic complexity have resulted in higher incomes.
What happens in East Africa?
There are a number of countries in East Africa that are projected to grow at least 5.5% annually.
Five countries in the region appear on the top ten of the CID list including Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Malawi and Madagascar.
In addition, there are countries in both the Middle East and South America that appear poised to take off.
Jordan and Israel have projected annual growth rates in excess of 4%. Guatemala has a projected growth rate of 5.22%, while Honduras and Mexico are both over 4%.
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What happens to US, UK & Germany?
At the same time, economic growth is anticipated to slow in advanced economies.
The US is anticipated to only grow 2.58%. The UK is forecasted at a slightly higher 3.22%. Germany, one of the leading economies in Europe, is forecasted with an annual growth rate of only 0.35%.
The CID also notes that economies based on commodity output face slower growth rates as commodity prices continue to remain under pressure.
The CID uses economic complexity as their indicator for economic growth after a decade of research.
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This research has found countries that diversify their production knowledge beyond what is expected see faster income growth.
This is a much more accurate indicator of future growth as compared with the popular World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index.
For example, the CID says that Greece has been an outlier for having a higher income level than would be expected for its level of economic complexity. The country has struggled with average negative annual growth over the past decade.
The CID says that looking at economic complexity may help policymakers.
By finding ways to bring new production and product capability into a country, it could help to strengthen growth in the future. The key is getting the new knowledge to come into the area which depends in part on immigration policy, as well as education policy.
Edited report from HowMuch.net.
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