Do you know that Africa is the new Asia?
Nearly half of the 11 billion people in the world in 2100 will live in Africa. Is your business or country getting ready to serve these billions and capture the market share?
A couple of years ago, quoting the UN data, several publications including The Economist, Foreign Policy, The Washington Post and more recently Politico called the Year 2100 as the African Century.
Many like me who were still looking at the billions in China and India and who were romancing the notion of the Asian Century were stunned.
Check out Wali Zahid’s PowerPoint on The World in 2050, a talk he gave at Convention Centre Islamabad at Youth Expo
This week, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) presented population projections for years 2050 and 2100.
And it appears the African Century is upon us!
The graph above is just a visual representation of how our world will change: Africa will grow rapidly, nearly three times than the rest of us. And Europe will shrink.
Also: How big is Africa?
These projections, although uncertain in nature, are critical for policymakers everywhere including Pakistan so the countries could plan their future investments and growth avenues to meet the needs and wants of these billions of people.
It’s a 11.2-billion-world
According to DESA, the world population will grow to 11.2 billion by the end of the 21st century.
The current total, at 7.3 billion, will increase to 9.7 billion by 2050.
Half of the world’s growth by 2050 will come from just 9 countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, USA, Indonesia and Uganda.
Sub-Saharan Africa is the future, below:
In seven years, i.e. in 2022, India will surpass China to become the most populous country on earth.
The rapidly-growing Africa
The biggest gain: Africa’s population of 1.2 billion is expected to rise to 5.6 billion by 2100. Which is nearly half of the people in 2100.
(While the rest of data on this page is from August 2015, the graphic about African GDP and country populations above are from 2013 edition of The Economist.)
Timeline visualised: How and when the global population will change.
The rise of Nigeria
Economically, mainly because of demographics, Nigeria has already surpassed South Africa as the continent’s largest economy. According to Goldman Sachs, Nigeria will rise further to become the 13th largest economy in the world in 2050 (chart below).
In 2014 Frontier Markets Sentiment Index, Nigeria emerged as the top frontier market that multinational corporations are most interested in investing in.
Population-wise, currently the 7th most populous country, Nigeria is going to be world’s 3rd most populous country after India and China in 2050.
Besides Nigeria, the fastest population growth in Africa will come mainly from: Congo(today’s worst ranking on nearly all indices), Tanzania, Ethiopia (called the next Dubai?), Niger and Uganda.
Infographics, courtesy: UN, The Economist, BBC, Atlas
To download the key findings of UN DESA Report, click here.